Prior to late 2005, virtually no one would have given 43-year-old Felipe Calderón a chance to be a serious contender in the 2006 presidential election in Mexico. Although he had been president of the PAN, a member of the Chamber of Deputies and energy minister in the Fox administration, Calderón was not favored by President Vicente Fox to be the party's standard-bearer in this year's presidential sweepstakes.

Despite his lack of support from the president, Calderón defeated both Fox-favored former interior minister Santiago Creel and former secretary of the environment and natural resources Alberto Cárdenas in PAN primaries to receive his party's presidential nomination. He has gone on to amaze political observers in Mexico by his performance in public opinion polls, which show him trailing front-runner Andrés Manuel López Obrador by only a few points. 

Calderón appears to have captured the support of a large segment of the electorate through unrelenting efforts to style himself as the candidate who would attack dishonest dealings throughout government. His reputation as one who has always operated in an above-board fashion during his political career has greatly assisted him in his efforts to reach Mexicans who have been disenchanted by PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo's inability to account for sizable real estate assets in Mexico City and Miami, and by news stories dating from 2004 that revealed the corruption of two high-ranking officials in the Mexico City administration of López Obrador.

Calderón's lack of firm support from Vicente Fox will likely not be a deficit in his campaign. Many analysts have seen the Fox administration as a missed opportunity to deal with substantial issues that continue to vex Mexican society. Despite initial pledges after the breakthrough election victory of 2000, the Fox administration failed to deal with labor problems, the loss of jobs and industry to the nations of the Pacific Rim, the absence of overall growth in the economy and the stalemate over immigration with the United States. And, at the same time, there is still the nagging problem of sociopolitical conflict as exemplified by unresolved issues in Chiapas. As a counterpoint to the failures of the Fox administration, Calderón stresses that, even if there were not a PAN majority in Congress, he as president would be successful in forging coalitions to arrive at effective solutions.

Although the PAN, throughout its history, has consistently identified itself with free-market principles and efforts to limit governmental control of the economy, small business still finds itself at a distinct disadvantage when engaged with governmental bureaucracy. Recognizing this, the Calderón campaign has emphasized that, a divided Congress notwithstanding, there are many presidential prerogatives that could assist in imparting vigor and animation to key segments of the economy that seem to have been lost in the shuffle. In other words, congressional fault cannot totally explain Fox's failure to capitalize on circumstances favorable for change.

As energy minister, Calderón was outspoken in his insistence on governmental efforts toward a proactive stance in conservation, while allowing private initiative to participate in redefining the vital role of energy in the national economy. Furthermore, many in the private sector are impressed by Calderón's promise to lead the way in looking for new means to obtain more favorable results from NAFTA.

While López Obrador has spoken out decisively against globalization and further privatization in the economy, the Calderón campaign has consistently emphasized that globalization is a 21st-century fact of life and that Mexico must compete internationally by raising the bar for education and technology and using the assets of government to spur positive competition to raise the standard of living of Mexicans.

Another factor that will bear heavily on the election's outcome is the strong possibility of an intra-party split within the PRI: those of a more pro-business and conservative bent will support Calderón and the PAN, and those with leftist leanings will move toward López Obrador and the PRD.

Socially, Calderón sounds as conservative as George W's fundamentalist supporters. Whether his stands against abortion rights and RU486 (the so-called "morning-after pill") will resonate with Catholic Mexico in 2006 remains to be seen; nevertheless, Calderón has consistently taken positions that would define himself as a social-conservative, far to the right of Vicente Fox. But, it should always be kept in mind that Mexico, after Brazil, has the second largest number of Roman Catholics in Latin America.

Whatever the outcome of the election on July 2, Calderón has shown that a candidate with a reputation for honesty and commitment has a wide-ranging appeal to the Mexican electorate. As such, he has no doubt elevated the standard for those who would seek their country's highest office. However, it remains to be seen whether Calderón's brand of conservatism will succeed after Mexico's experience with the lost opportunities associated with the nation's first PAN presidency.


John Barham has been visiting San Miguel de Allende for more than 18 years. He has served as an associate professor of history, dean and provost in colleges and universities in Alabama, Texas, Saudi Arabia and New York.