Down to the wire: Mexican politics at a crossroads
By John Barham, June 23, 2006


Polls after the second and final presidential debate on June 6 showed the PAN's Felipe Calderón enjoying an extremely slight advantage over PRD rival Andrés Manuel López Obrador. In the final analysis, the debate probably did not persuade any undecided voters, but simply imparted new vigor to those already committed to a candidate. Essentially, Mexican voters have a close race to watch, one pitting the political left against the political right. And one that is destined to go down to the wire on July 2.

As for the PRI's Roberto Madrazo, his 10-point deficit would suggest that he is out of the running and will likely finish a distant third. In fact, some senior PRI members, such as Senator Manuel Bartlett, are encouraging party members to cast votes for López Obrador, in order to forestall a Calderón victory. There is a very real possibility that, in a close race, defecting PRI members may well decide the outcome of the election. And, with the PRI in such disarray, the party of the "dinosaurs" could now be on the verge of extinction.

In the time remaining before July 2, expect López Obrador to energize his supporters with mass rallies and a stepped-up media campaign. A brilliant orator, AMLO will capitalize on every opportunity to display his rhetorical skills.

No doubt hurt by his failure to appear at the first debate, AMLO has since come back with a vengeance and could soon overtake Calderón in the polls, despite Calderón's blistering political advertisement campaign, which has equated AMLO with Hugo Chávez of Venezuela. For its part, the AMLO campaign has continued to call attention to AMLO's tenure as head of government in Mexico City and his programs, which reduced corruption in the police department, increased benefits for the elderly, single mothers and the disabled, created a free university and improved the flow of traffic in the world's largest city.

Coming virtually from the political wilderness earlier in the year, Calderón has amazed political observers with his ability to hold his position in the polls. His reputation for honesty and above-board politics seems to have captured the imagination of a sizable segment of the Mexican electorate, while throughout his campaign he has continued to articulate his conviction that Mexico must participate in globalization to create jobs. In order to compete, says Calderón, Mexico must raise educational standards and use government as a positive force to jump-start the type of competition that will result in an overall rise in the standard of living.

During the second debate and in his campaign speeches, Calderon has dismissed AMLO's criticisms of globalization and his aversion to further privatization by tying the PRD candidate's populism to the statism of former president Luis Echeverria, a presidency that was marred by out-of-control spending and a rising national deficit. To return to the flawed budgetary policies of the past would be tragic at this stage of Mexico's development, says Calderón.

For his part in the June 6 debate, López Obrador acknowledged that globalization is a trend that Mexico must reckon with and utilize to its advantage; however, the problem is that globalization as a paradigm was attempted in Mexico on a far greater scale than elsewhere. Added to this, and further impairing the Mexican economy, is the fact that experience has demonstrated that it is impossible to compete with other economies that protect key segments such as agriculture. Nowhere has this been more telling than in Mexico, which has been hamstrung by NAFTA provisions that have had the effect of forcing poor farmers off the land and adding to the exodus of emigrants to the north. 

Stressing consistently that Mexico, by virtue of its ample natural resources, is a wealthy nation, AMLO has emphasized that most problems facing the country result from poor management and a system notable for a high degree of corruption. By ensuring an accountable administration and by tapping Mexico's wealth in a fair and equitable manner, jobs will be created and injustice addressed. Then and only then will the tide of northward emigration be reversed. 

AMLO is fond of stating that while the PAN leadership is a collection of a relatively small number of people acting in behalf of the propertied classes in Mexico, the PRD is a progressive party that, once in power, will represent all Mexicans. This in itself is a powerful appeal to many who feel as though they have been lost in the shuffle of a changing economy accompanied by governmental stalemate.

Mexico is now facing unmet challenges: 1) the ongoing conflict in Chiapas, 2) the loss of jobs and industry to the Pacific Rim nations, 3) the continuing emigration to the US and 4) the absence of overall growth in the economy. Presented with two diametrically opposed candidates in the election on July 2, Mexican voters will ultimately decide which of the two may best deal with issues that will determine the course that their country will follow well into the 21st century.


John Barham, has been an instructor and administrator in colleges and universities in Alabama, Texas, New York, Saudi Arabia and Missouri. He may be reached at barhamj@missouri.edu