North Looking South (July 21, 2006)
By John Barham


Some reflections on the 2006 election

The 2006 election has come and gone; and, by the narrowest of margins in what was a down-to-the-wire cliff-hanger, the PAN’s Felipe Calderón has seemingly emerged as the winner.

Losing by only 244,000 votes, Andrés Manuel López Obrador has vowed to challenge the outcome through the Federal Electoral Tribunal and possibly through the Supreme Court, if necessary. And, in some locales, PRD loyalists have taken to the streets to demonstrate their desire for a full recount.

Thus far, the Electoral Commission has shown no signs of ruling in favor of PRD allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities. If López Obrador does take his case to the Supreme Court, the possibility exists that the high court could recommend that the Electoral Tribunal undertake a recount. This, however, seems unlikely; and the odds are that, come December, Felipe Calderón will be sworn in as president of the Republic of Mexico.

In any case, the orderly nature of the election has underscored the strength of the Mexican system. And further attesting to the stability of Mexican politics in 2006 was the tendency of both the PAN and the PRD to move to more centrist positions. While former energy minister Calderón was definitely the candidate of the right and called for more foreign investment and cutting taxes, near the end of the campaign he was also advocating that the oportunidades, or the Mexican welfare system, should be expanded to aid the poor. And, although López Obrador was decidedly in favor of more government involvement in the economy, he also made certain to expound on the need for economic stability. In other words, the left was a positive influence on the right, and the right’s effect on the left was to move it toward moderation. 

A monitoring mission from the European Union was on hand for the election, and its 80 observers reported no electoral wrongdoing. In addition, Jose Miguel Insulza, secretary general of the Organization of American States, congratulated Mexico on a clean election.

As for the PRI, which ruled Mexico for more than 70 years, 2006 was a disaster. Its candidate, Roberto Madrazo, finished a distant third, and the party lost half of its congressional representation. During the last six years, the PRI was most notable for blocking President Vicente Fox’s initiatives to deal with major challenges facing Mexico. Although it is now going through a purge of party members such as Elba Ester Gordilla, the powerful head of the Mexican teachers union who did not support Madrazo, it will eventually, in order to survive, be forced into coalition building, which will auger well for responsible action in Congress. These developments will hopefully work in breaking the deadlock that virtually paralyzed the Fox administration.

An interesting development that surfaced from polls taken of voters leaving the polling sites was that younger voters tended to favor the PAN and Calderón. Thirty-eight percent of the 18- to 29-year-old vote went to Calderón and 34 percent went to López Obrador. Those Calderón voters in this age bracket who were queried about the rationale of their votes tended to refer to what they deemed Calderón’s “more pragmatic views” on globalization and the economy.

At the same time, older voters, that is those exceeding 50 years of age, went for López Obrador over Calderón by 37 percent to 34 percent. Most often cited among these voters as motivation for their votes was López Obrador’s pledge to use the power of government to intervene on behalf of the elderly, the poor and those who have suffered from losses in the economy to the Pacific Rim nations.

Rather than being downcast, the Mexican left, and especially the PRD, should take heart that it has done exceedingly well in 2006. Now, with its increased representation in Congress, it will emerge as a major player in efforts to boost the economy and to increase opportunities for all Mexicans. Yet, it is in their interest to heed the message that it must capture the fealty of Mexican youth by emphasizing modernity and a commitment to spur the country to competence in world markets and to the know-how to make it possible.

As I have often stated in this column, the major challenges that faced the PAN in 2006 were to demonstrate that it is a major party, capable of once again capturing the presidency, increasing its representation in Congress and confirming itself as a permanent fixture in Mexican politics. In these areas, the PAN has succeeded. Nevertheless, greater challenges lie ahead. Specifically, Felipe Calderón must show that he possesses the leadership and political maturity to forge the alliances necessary in Congress to: 

1) deal with the sociopolitical conflict in Chiapas; 
2) confront the loss of jobs and industry to the Pacific Rim countries; 
3) end the stalemate over immigration with the United States; and
4) provide positive means to overcome the overall absence of growth in the Mexican economy. 

In many ways, 2007 will be critical for the new administration to show that it possesses new solutions that are so vital to finally dealing with the old, unmet challenges of the Fox years.


John Barham, who has recently retired from a long career as a professor and administrator in colleges and universities in Alabama, Saudi Arabia, Texas, New York and Missouri, is now a full-time resident of San Miguel de Allende. John may be reached at barhamjw@yahoo.com.