North Looking South

History as a cyclical process
By John Barham, Aug 25, 2006

When I was a young history major during the 1960s, a couple of significant works had the effect of forming my understanding of the development of history and how events from one generation to another, one century to another, and even one millennium to another often reveal shared qualities that account for their successes and failures.

Writing during the early 1930s, a time when the Western world was still striving to come to grips with the slaughter and carnage of World War I, Arnold J. Toynbee, in his multi-volume work A Study of History, equated the advancement of societies and civilizations to the interfacing of challenge and response, and how groups of human beings would either be brought to the fore or diminished by the quality of their reactions to the challenges of existence. 

For some, their response might be compared to that of an unambitious mountain-climber who chooses to cling to a rocky crag rather than to continue the dangerous ascent to the summit. Others, with more prowess and determination, continue to the top and look for other summits to conquer. And the same is true for nations, societies and civilizations. 

For Toynbee, the history of civilization may be seen as resembling a physical process. Just as all organisms go through an evolution that takes them through birth, infancy, childhood, maturity, decline and eventual demise, the same is true for the societies and civilizations created by human beings. Moreover, it is important to remember that decline is habitually the result of attempts to employ old responses and solutions to meet new challenges.

Similarly, in his classic work Anatomy of Revolution, Crane Brinton examined the history of revolutions and found shared traits from one revolutionary movement to another. 

In many ways, Mexican history, at this point in time, finds itself in a unique position of being virtually obligated to complete the Mexican Revolution and to substantiate the principles of that movement, in order to fulfill the great potential of the country. Until the final phase of the Revolution is played out, it will be practically impossible for Mexican society to meet its challenges and to progress to new levels of success.

Thus far, the fiber of the political system has held fast. However, it will be severely tested by how the electoral tribunal in Mexico City resolves the disputed presidential election and, peripherally, by how activist movements in Chiapas and Oaxaca are handled. The grave peril is that general disenchantment might redeploy itself into a backward shift to a more extreme form of revolutionary fervor that would postpone the completion of the Revolution. In other words, a series of repetitions of Chiapas and Oaxaca could prove to be counterproductive.

Historically, the next few months are critical. Within that timeframe, keen observers will in all likelihood discern what course Mexico will follow to confront its challenges. And, from that vantage point, it is possible that there will be an indication of how key responses will shape the eventual final verdict of history. 

With few exceptions, most revolutions begin with moderate objectives but eventually are captured by elements characterized by uncompromising forms of radicalism, such as that manifested by Robespierre during the French Revolution. And then, after the passion of extremism has run its course, there is inevitably a return to moderation and the social tranquility necessary for orderly progress.

In previous columns, I have made it a point to refer to what I feel are the major challenges facing Mexico. In summary, they are 1) to deal with the sociopolitical conflict in Chiapas (and now Oaxaca); 2) to confront the loss of jobs and industry to the Pacific Rim countries; 3) to end the stalemate on immigration with the United States; 4) to overcome widespread poverty affecting the lives of an inordinate number of individuals; 5) to instill a respect for law and 6) to provide a strong impetus for economic growth. 

Until these challenges are met with fresh and innovative solutions, stalemate and the inability to move beyond the status quo will likely be the consequence. Unfortunately, the last six years of Mexican political history, owing to unmet expectations, vividly demonstrate a pervasive disenchantment from the euphoria of the breakthrough PAN victory in 2000. Consequently, whoever takes the office of president in December must be an innovator and should also have the capacity to break away from the dead hand of the past in order to capture the imagination and support of the masses. 

North Looking South

John Barham, after a long career as a professor and administrator in colleges and universities, has retired from the University of Missouri and is a full-time resident of San Miguel de Allende. He may be reached at barhamjw@yahoo.com