May 30, 2008, Windows Vista a memory hog, By Charles Miller

In January 2007, when Microsoft released their latest Windows operating system, Vista, their publicly announced intention was to discontinue sales of Windows XP on January 30, 2008. Things did not work out exactly as planned.

Microsoft seriously miscalculated the public’s resistance to change, even a change for the better. In my mind there is little doubt that the new Windows Vista is a real improvement over the older Windows XP, so long as you have a new-enough and powerful-enough computer to run it. In order to work well, Windows Vista requires tons of memory, a top-of-the-line processor and an expensive high-end video card. This is the crux of Microsoft’s problem.

Two years ago, as Microsoft was getting their new operating system ready for delivery to the market, somebody realized that three-quarters of all the brand-new computers on the market did not have enough horsepower to run Vista. A year later when Vista was placed on the market, by some estimates around 90 percent of the computers then running Windows XP did not meet the requirements for upgrading to Vista.

Like many other software companies, Microsoft publishes an end-of-life timetable for their products, announcing the date on which they intend to stop selling a version and the date on which they will stop supporting it. In the case of the venerable Windows XP, the last day to buy a copy was set for January 30, 2008. By late 2007 Microsoft had to abandon that schedule and granted the major manufacturers a five-month stay of execution, extending the sales of XP until June 30, 2008.

Nice try, but some major computer manufacturers are not on board with this. Dell has been quietly reassuring their business customers that they intend to continue selling XP through 2012 whether Microsoft likes it or not.

As I read through the verbal hype of Microsoft press releases, I note that they have left themselves some loopholes. One obscure press release says that since “some of the systems that ship in emerging markets don’t meet the requirements for Windows Vista, we will be extending availability of Windows XP Starter Edition to June 30, 2010.” I read that and realized Microsoft had just blinked. If they are willing to continue selling the stripped-down XP Starter Edition in emerging markets (read “Third World”) then it follows they will simply have to continue selling the full versions of Windows XP as well. The reason for this is simple and economic.

Consumers have grown accustomed to buying dirt-cheap computers. Given a choice of spending US$500 on a new computer running XP versus spending double or triple that on a system to run Vista…gee whiz, guess which one most consumers will choose.

This is the economic reality facing Microsoft; they can continue selling legal copies of Windows XP or shoot themselves in the foot. It now appears that Dell and other manufacturers plan to continue selling XP and continue sending regular payments to Redmond. So how does Microsoft stop Dell from selling their customers what they want?

My prediction is that Microsoft is not going to abandon the revenues from that section of the market. They will probably save face by continuing to postpone the cut-off date again and again, but look for them to continue to grudgingly take the money as their surrogates sell copies of Windows XP for several more years.

Charles Miller is a freelance computer consultant, a frequent visitor to San Miguel since 1981 and now practically a full-time resident. He may be contacted at 044-415-101-8528 or email FAQ8 (at) SMAguru.com.