Murphy’s Law
By Robert de Gast

We’ve all heard of Murphy’s Law. Actually there are lots of laws in Murphy’s inventory and many apply to digital photography. To wit:

Murphy’s First Law: Nothing is as easy as it looks.

Murphy’s Second Law: Everything takes longer than you think. 

Murphy’s Third Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. 

Strike a chord?

Lots of other laws, postulates, axioms and principles also apply to photography. For example:

Allen’s Axiom: When all else fails, read the instructions.

Chisolm’s Discovery: Batteries are not included.

Clarke’s Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.

We also have Moore’s Law. Gordon Moore, one of the founders of Intel Corporation, observed 40 years ago that the number of transistors on a chip doubles every 18 months. That prediction has pretty much held up. For digital cameras, this has meant sensors with more pixels and memory cards with greater capacity.

Recently Nathan Myhrvold, the former chief technology officer of Microsoft and co-founder of the investment and invention firm Intellectual Ventures, made some predictions about digital photography’s future. “Mark my words,” he wrote, “you’ll own a 16- or even a 25-megapixel point-and-shoot in a few years, and it will not stop there. By some estimates, our eyes have an effective resolution of more than 500 megapixels. If you can see it, why shouldn’t a camera record it?”

“Even so, image resolution is the most mundane way to measure progress. Here are some things that are coming next,” according to Myhrvold.

“The best digital cameras are already limited by the quality of their lenses. This won’t last long because you can use more pixels (and some added processing power, courtesy of Moore’s Law) to help correct lens defects.

“A key factor in quality is ratio of brightness from the darkest to the lightest. The reason that many pictures don’t turn out is that in daytime the human eye can easily perceive a dynamic range of 10,000:1, while at night it is more like 1,000,000:1. Meanwhile, color slide film can only record about 32:1, and today’s digital cameras about 64:1. In many situations, this forces a choice— do you expose for the light parts of the scene (and let the dark parts go dead black) or save the shadows and turn the bright parts pure white? Future digital sensors will fix this, with ever-broader dynamic range and greater light sensitivity (the ISO rating). At the same time, the digital noise that comes with high ISO today will diminish.

“Of course, there will be a cost because the image files will get bigger. Much more storage will be required, but Moore’s Law kicks in— doubling the number of bits at the same cost takes about 18 months.

“Focus is another problem. How many of your pictures wind up fuzzy? Autofocus technology can help, but today’s cameras still limit how much of a scene can be in focus at one time, known as depth of field. Yet technically there is no reason we can’t get essentially infinite depth of field, again by using more digital processing.”

“Cameras also will change form,” Myhrvold predicted. “Today they are basically film cameras without the film, which makes about as much sense as automobiles circa 1910, which were horse-drawn carriages without the horse. A car owner of that time would be pretty shocked by what’s in a showroom now. Camera stores of the future will surprise us just as much. Why choose between still and video; why not both? While you’re at it, throw in 3-D data, wireless networking and internet access.”

“So much change will lead to gnashing of teeth by traditionalists. But in the end, it is not the annoying limitations of old technology that matter. The wonder of photography comes from the nearly magical effect that captured moments in space and time can have on our hearts and our minds. That won’t change, because it is in us, not in the equipment,” Myhrvold observed.

It has been said that Moore’s Law is for optimists and Murphy’s Law is for pessimists. In a couple of years I’d like to be able to buy a 40-megapixel camera for less than a thousand bucks, then we’ll see who was right! 

Robert de Gast is a professional photographer and the author of nine books. He offers short photography tutorials and conducts workshops and tours. He can be reached at 152-7396 or at robertdegast@hotmail.com